Global change:
It will alter the supply of ecosystem services that are vital for human well-being. To investigate ecosystem service supply during the 21st century, we used a range of ecosystem models and scenarios of climate and land-use change to conduct a Europe-wide assessment. Large changes in climate and land use typically result in large changes in ecosystem service supply. Some of these trends may be positive (for example, increases in forest area and productivity) or offer opportunities (for example, ‘‘surplus land’’ for agricultural extensification and bioenergy production). However, many changes increase vulnerability as a result of a decreasing supply of ecosystem services (for example, declining soil fertility, declining water availability, and increasing risk of forest fires), especially in the Mediterranean and mountain regions.
To sustainable future:
In which the Earth’s life support systems are maintained and human needs are met, human activities must first be recognized as an integral component of ecosystems (1, 2). Scenarios of global change raise concern about alterations in ecosystem services such as food production and water supply, but the potential trajectories of change, especially at the regional scale, are poorly characterized. We investigated the changing supply of ecosystem services in a spatially explicit vulnerability assessment of Europe, using multiple global change scenarios and a set of ecosystem models.
Global Climate Model:
Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM2), and the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation–Climate Model Version 2 (CSIRO2)—were used to simulate climatic changes (4). Out of 16 combinations of storylines and GCMs, we selected seven scenarios for interpretation: B1, B2, A1FI, A2 calculated with HadCM3 (variation across storylines, B socioeconomic options[), and A2
calculated additionally with three other GCMs (variation across climate models, B climatic uncertainty[)