POPULATION BOMB IS EXPLODING IN PAKISTAN

Introduction: A Demographic Surge

While global population growth has been slowing, Pakistan presents a stark contrast. According to preliminary results from the 2011 census, Pakistan’s population growth significantly exceeded previous projections. From 1998 to 2011, the population increased by 62.7 million, reaching 197.4 million. This growth is 20 million higher than what had been forecasted by the United Nations. Some of this discrepancy is due to the influx of refugees from Afghanistan, but the majority reflects natural population growth.

This explosive growth has propelled Pakistan past Brazil to become the fifth most populous country in the world, following China, India, the United States, and Indonesia. The country experienced a staggering growth rate of 34.2% between 2000 and 2011 — double the growth rate of countries like Mexico, India, and Bangladesh. If this trend continues, Pakistan is projected to surpass Indonesia and become the world’s fourth most populous nation by 2030.

Global Population Comparisons

In comparison to other nations from 2000 to 2011:

• China grew by 5.5%

• India by 15.9%

• The U.S. by 9.7%

• Indonesia by 12.1%

• Brazil by 11.2%

• Pakistan by 34.2%

This places Pakistan in a unique position globally as one of the fastest-growing major populations. Its fertility rate stands at 3.2 — much higher than India (2.6) and Bangladesh (2.2). Pakistan’s total fertility rate is one of the highest globally outside of sub-Saharan Africa.

Household Size and Fertility

Pakistan’s rapid population growth is reflected in its high average household size. In 2011, the average Pakistani household had 6.8 people, slightly lower than 6.9 in 1998, but still among the highest in the world. In contrast, developed countries typically have household sizes between 2.2 and 2.6.

These large households put pressure on housing, infrastructure, and services, especially in urban areas. Without effective policy responses, Pakistan risks further exacerbating urban housing shortages and creating unsustainable living environments.

Karachi: An Exploding Metropolis

Karachi, Pakistan’s largest city and the capital of Sindh province, has experienced unprecedented urban growth. Between 1998 and 2011, the city’s population grew from 9.8 million to 21.2 million — a staggering 115% increase. No major city globally has grown this fast over such a short period.

To compare:

• Tokyo once grew by 6.2 million in a decade (1960–1970),

• Jakarta by 7.4 million (2000–2010),

• Shanghai by 7.0 million, and

• Beijing by 6.0 million.

Karachi’s 13-year growth translates to an adjusted 10-year increase of 8.7 million — surpassing the peak growth of all other major cities in modern history.

With a current population density of around 63,000 people per square mile (24,000/km²), Karachi is denser than almost any other megacity except Dhaka and Mumbai. If current trends continue, Karachi could become the world’s largest urban area by 2030, potentially surpassing even Tokyo.

Urban Density and Housing Pressures

Unlike most megacities, Karachi’s densification is happening within households. While the national household size is declining, Karachi’s increased from 6.7 to 7.3 between 1998 and 2011. This suggests that the growth in population density is not just due to urban expansion, but also crowding within homes — a sign of extreme pressure on housing availability.

This trend may be due to either higher fertility rates in the city or the practice of “doubling-up,” where extended families live together due to housing shortages.

Migration, Economy, and Informal Settlements

Karachi’s rapid growth is driven by its role as an economic hub. Migrants from across Pakistan, and even from neighboring countries, flock to the city in search of work and better living standards. However, Pakistan’s GDP per capita (PPP) was under $3,000 in 2011, much lower than in developed countries.

Although incomes are higher in Karachi than in the rest of the country, the economic opportunity is insufficient to absorb the influx of residents, leading to the proliferation of informal settlements or slums. In 2000, approximately 5 million residents — nearly half of Karachi’s population at the time — lived in slums.

Hyderabad: Even Faster Growth

Hyderabad, also in Sindh province, is Pakistan’s second-largest metropolitan area. Between 1998 and 2011, it grew from 1.4 million to 3.4 million — a growth rate of 129%, even faster than Karachi’s. This shows that the urban growth phenomenon is not limited to a single city but is part of a broader trend.

Other Urban Centers: Lahore and Beyond

Though the report focuses on Sindh, similar trends are likely occurring elsewhere. Lahore, the capital of Punjab and Pakistan’s second-largest city overall, is also expected to have exceeded 10 million residents.

Urban population growth is rapidly transforming the urban hierarchy of the country. Cities are sprawling, often without adequate planning or infrastructure.

Urban Planning and Development Trends

Satellite imagery and on-the-ground research indicate that Pakistan is beginning to implement urban expansion strategies in line with international recommendations. The UN’s 2007 “State of the World Population Report” urged rapidly urbanizing countries to:

• Expand city limits,

• Develop road grids in expanding areas,

• Secure wide rights-of-way (25–30 meters) for future infrastructure.

Karachi and Hyderabad, in particular, show patterns of expansion consistent with this advice. Grids of roads are visible around these cities on Google Earth, indicating potential for better-managed growth if followed by infrastructure and housing development.

Challenges and Opportunities

While urban growth presents huge challenges — including slums, congestion, lack of services, and environmental strain — it also presents opportunities. A young, growing population can drive economic growth if proper investments are made in:

• Affordable housing,

• Mass transit,

• Sanitation and water infrastructure,

• Health and education services,

• Employment creation.

Pakistan’s future urban success depends on how well it manages this population explosion. If well-governed, the growing cities could become engines of national progress. If mismanaged, they risk becoming centers of poverty, inequality, and unrest.

Conclusion

Pakistan is experiencing one of the fastest urban and population growth surges in the modern world. With a population that grew by over 60 million in just over a decade, and urban centers like Karachi and Hyderabad doubling in size, the country faces both a demographic challenge and an urban opportunity.

To handle this growth sustainably, Pakistan must:

• Reform its urban policies,

• Improve data and census systems,

• Plan for infrastructure ahead of settlement,

• And invest significantly in housing, services, and job creation.

The country’s demographic future will be written in its cities — and how it handles the urban explosion will shape Pakistan’s development for decades to come.

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