Delivering The Housing Ontario Needs
Introduction
Housing Ontario needs a fundamental shift in strategy to address the deepening affordability crisis and systemic failures that currently leave too many residents without safe, stable homes. As housing costs rise significantly faster than incomes, the reliance on private market forces has proven insufficient to meet the diverse needs of low- and moderate-income households.
This comprehensive plan, developed by United Way Greater Toronto, the Co-operative Housing Federation of Canada, and SHS, outlines a bold vision for transforming the province’s housing system. By prioritizing non-profit and co-operative housing providers, the proposal aims to deliver deeply affordable units, preserve existing stock, and ensure long-term stability for vulnerable populations. The following analysis details the critical targets, financial investments, and structural changes required to meet the Housing Ontario Needs over the next decade.The Current State of Housing in Ontario
Ontario’s housing system is characterized by rising prices, limited availability, and a significant gap in affordable options. Between 2006 and 2021, average gross household income grew by 49%, while rent costs increased by roughly 60% to 70%, and owned dwelling values grew by approximately 170% to 195%. Since then, rent costs have continued to rise, increasing by 19% in the primary market between 2021 and 2024. This disparity places immense strain on households, particularly those on fixed incomes or receiving social assistance.
As of 2024, the vacancy rate for units renting for less than $1,500 a month fell near or below 1% across the province, far below the 3% considered healthy. Consequently, over 268,000 households were waiting for subsidized housing. The lack of diverse, affordable, and supportive housing options negatively affects the entire system, leading to rising experiences of homelessness. More than 80,000 people were known to be experiencing homelessness in Ontario in 2024, with over half experiencing chronic homelessness. This represents an increase of over 25% in just three years.
Structurally disadvantaged populations, including Indigenous communities, Black and racialized groups, people with disabilities, and single-earner households, face disproportionate barriers. For example, 15% of Ontario households were in core housing need in 2022, but this rate was significantly higher for Indigenous households (15%), Black households (21%), and recent immigrants (19%).
The current system’s over-reliance on the private market, which accounts for 95% of Canada’s housing stock, has relegated non-profit and co-op housing to the sidelines, despite their proven ability to provide permanent affordability. Understanding these dynamics is essential to addressing the Housing Ontario Needs.
Defining Affordability and Core Housing Need
To effectively address the Housing Ontario Needs, it is essential to establish common definitions. Affordable housing is broadly defined as housing that costs less than 30% of a household’s before-tax income. This report distinguishes between two explicit types: deeply affordable and moderately affordable housing.
Deeply affordable housing refers to housing affordable to low-income households, specifically those in the lowest 30% of the income distribution. In 2024 dollars, this translates to household incomes of up to $44,000. This report considers deeply affordable housing exclusively as rent-geared-to-income (RGI) housing, where tenants pay no more than 30% of their income on rent. These units are typically provided by non-profit and co-op housing providers with government subsidies.
Moderately affordable housing is intended for households with moderate incomes, defined as those between the 31st and 60th percentiles of the income distribution. In 2024 dollars, this includes household incomes of roughly $44,000 to $83,000. For rental housing, this means costs are the lesser of either average market rent or 30% of the income of a household at the 60th percentile.
Core housing need refers to households that do not live in acceptable housing and whose before-tax income is not sufficient to access acceptable housing locally. Housing is considered acceptable if it is affordable, suitable (enough bedrooms), and adequate (not in need of major repairs). Understanding these distinctions is crucial for targeting interventions that truly meet the Housing Ontario Needs.
Strategic Targets for 2035
The plan sets bold, needs-based targets to drive meaningful action by 2035. These targets balance the urgency of today’s conditions with realistic forecasts of the time required for implementation.
Target 1: Deeply Affordable Housing
Target 1 calls for the creation of 805,000 deeply affordable housing units for low-income households. This target acknowledges that if current conditions persist, roughly one in three renter households will be in core housing need by 2035, with over 90% being low-income. To meet this demand, the plan recommends that at least 255,000 of these units be newly constructed non-profit and co-operative units. The remaining 550,000 units would be met through portable housing benefits applied to private market units.
Within this target, specific sub-targets address critical populations. At least 93,000 units must be supportive housing, integrating medical, mental health, and social supports. Additionally, a minimum of 55,000 units must be developed by and for Indigenous households, recognizing the distinct housing needs and historical disparities faced by First Nations, Métis, and Inuit peoples.
The geographic distribution shows that over half of these units (447,000) are required in the Greater Toronto Area. These figures represent a significant portion of the Housing Ontario Needs.
Target 2: Moderately Affordable Housing
Target 2 calls for the creation of 145,000 moderately affordable units to support moderate-income households whose needs cannot be met through private market supply alone. As private market prices rise, many moderate-income households are only a paycheck away from housing insecurity.
This target includes at least 12,000 units for Indigenous households. Like Target 1, over half of these units (80,500) are projected to be needed in the Greater Toronto Area. Addressing this segment is vital for a holistic approach to the Housing Ontario Needs.
Target 3: Preservation and Maintenance
Target 3 focuses on acquiring, repairing, and maintaining 225,000 units to prevent the erosion of existing affordable housing. This includes the acquisition of 80,000 naturally occurring affordable units (NOAH) in the private market by non-profit and co-op providers. NOAH refers to older rental stock that is affordable without government subsidy but is rapidly disappearing due to rent increases and conversions.
Additionally, 145,000 existing non-profit, co-op, and affordable units require significant rehabilitation and repair to remain viable. Preserving this stock is a cost-effective strategy to meet the Housing Ontario Needs without the high costs of new construction.
Financial Investment and Implementation
Achieving these targets requires unprecedented investment and coordination. The report models two- and five-year investment estimates to set Ontario on the path to success. By 2027, all levels of government need to provide $16.7 billion in upfront capital and ongoing subsidies. By 2030, this cumulative investment must reach $62.6 billion.
For Target 1, the two-year milestone involves creating 15,150 deeply affordable units and 170,000 portable housing benefits, costing $7.8 billion. By 2030, the goal is 71,250 new units and 312,500 benefits, with a cumulative cost of $38.0 billion. The capital cost per new deeply affordable unit is estimated at $300,000 in government investment, covering grants, fee waivers, and HST rebates.
Ongoing subsidies for these units average $19,250 per unit annually, accounting for both rent supplements and support services. These investments are central to fulfilling the Housing Ontario Needs.
For Target 2, the two-year milestone is 8,250 new moderately affordable units, costing $1.1 billion. By 2030, the target rises to 40,000 units, with a cumulative cost of $5.6 billion. Government investment here is modeled through existing incentives like HST rebates and development charge waivers, estimated at $113,000 per unit in capital costs, plus ongoing property tax relief.
For Target 3, the two-year milestone involves acquiring 25,000 units and repairing 40,000 units, costing $7.9 billion. By 2030, the goal is acquiring 55,000 units and repairing 100,000 units, with a cumulative cost of $19.0 billion.
Acquisition costs are estimated at $180,535 per unit, while significant repairs average $78,750 per unit in government investment. These investments are critical to ensuring the Housing Ontario Needs are met through both new supply and preservation.
System Transformation Pillars
To deliver on these targets, the report identifies three system change pillars that require immediate attention.
Pillar 1: A Tangible Shift towards Non-Profit and Co-op Housing
This pillar advocates moving beyond reliance on the private market. Solutions include creating a large-scale non-profit and co-operative housing development program, preserving affordable stock through acquisition by community providers, and prioritizing surplus public lands for non-profit and Indigenous-led housing development. This shift recognizes that non-profit and co-op providers are uniquely positioned to deliver permanent affordability, a key component of the Housing Ontario Needs.
Pillar 2: Scaling Non-Profit and Co-op Capacity
The sector must scale its capacity to meet the ambitious targets. This requires predictable and guaranteed funding, allowing providers to plan long-term. Program improvements should coordinate funding across government levels, linking capital and operating funds.
Cross-sector partnerships should be promoted to share knowledge and build capacity. Additionally, Indigenous and Black-led organizations must be empowered to lead culturally appropriate housing solutions. Scaling this sector is essential to meeting the Housing Ontario Needs.
Pillar 3: Government Leadership, Coordination and Accountability
Clear leadership is needed to drive coordination across ministries and levels of government. The report recommends creating a provincial housing secretariat to improve interministerial collaboration. Data accessibility and performance metrics must be improved to inform planning.
Consistent definitions and standards should be established to reduce confusion. Finally, clear pathways between housing and other systems, such as healthcare and justice, must be developed to prevent individuals from falling through the cracks. Strong governance is the foundation for addressing the Housing Ontario Needs.
Conclusion
The Housing Ontario Needs are urgent and complex, requiring a decisive departure from business-as-usual approaches. By setting bold targets for deeply and moderately affordable housing, preserving existing stock, and empowering non-profit and co-operative providers, Ontario can build a more equitable and stable housing system.
The proposed $62.6 billion investment by 2030 is not merely an expense but a strategic investment in social stability, economic productivity, and public health. As the document emphasizes, housing is a public good and a shared responsibility. Implementing this plan will require sustained political will, cross-sector collaboration, and a commitment to truth and reconciliation with Indigenous communities.
Only through such transformative action can Ontario ensure that every resident has access to a safe, stable, and affordable home, finally meeting the Housing Ontario Needs.
Also read: Ontario's Housing Crisis Explained